The probability of a no deal Brexit, it is fair to say, is on the rise. But what does no deal mean? According to a Sky News Twitter poll, which did the rounds on Twitter last week, over a quarter of voters think no deal means no Brexit at all.
It is easy to see how this could be an attractive idea for some people. The idea of a public too disengaged and uninterested to yet realise what no deal Brexit means, but who will recoil in horror when they do, marries both the hope of People’s Vote strategists that the polls will soon shift and the belief of campaigners that, once given the facts, voters will change their mind on Brexit altogether.
With YouGov, we have polled voters on the implications of no deal twice – back in August, and for a second time this month – and found a different story to the one. Just 4 per cent of voters think that a no deal Brexit would mean the ‘UK remains an EU member’ – the exact same number who thought so back in August.
There was no statistically significant difference between whether you voted Leave or Remain in 2016, or where you live in the country, or which social grade you are from.