Our new report: Article 50 two years on

Academic think tank The UK in a Changing Europe has released a new report, Article 50 two years on, summarising what has happened in the Article 50 process, where we are now, and what might happen in the future.

Findings from Sir John Curtice’s latest polling shows that Leave voters feel common market 2.0 is basically Remain.

New research in the report finds MPs have become considerably more rebellious over the Article 50 process, particularly since July 2018. Since then, the government has lost more than a third of its Brexit votes.

Tim Bale notes that if the UK stays in the EU, the future prospects for the Conservative party would be bleak. Equally, if the UK leaves the EU, the Labour party will be in “big trouble”.

Party identity and left-right values are arguably of diminishing importance, while Sir John Curtice argues that bridging the gap between Remainers and Leavers will prove extremely difficult.

The report does find areas of commonality between Leavers and Remainers, including their belief that the gap between rich and poor is too large, that health is the most important issue and a shared lack of trust in the government.

The report is being released on the same day as its eponymous conference, Article 50 two years on. Speakers at the event at the QEII include: Stefaan De Rynck, Article 50 Task Force and senior adviser to Michel Barnier; Sir Ivan Rogers; Henry Newman, MPs Nicky Morgan and Caroline Flint; academics Sir John Curtice, Anand Menon, Catherine Barnard, Paula Surridge and Sara Hagemann; journalists: Evan Davis, Anne McElvoy, Heather Stewart, Peter Foster, Jennifer Rankin, Asa Bennett and Sam Coates.

The report looks at:

  • The negotiations
  • How public opinion has changed over the two-year process
  • The withdrawal agreement
  • How the EU has changed over the two years
  • Future UK-EU relationship
  • How the legacy of EU law will be felt for decades

Authors include: Sir John Curtice, constitutional experts Vernon Bogdanor and Meg Russell, immigration and economics expert Jonathan Portes, EU politics experts Helen Thompson, Anand Menon and Simon Usherwood, trade expert Sam Lowe, EU law experts Catherine Barnard and Steve Peers, expert in foreign affairs Sir Lawrence Freedman and politics experts Tim Bale and David Runciman.

Professor Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, said: “This is the definitive report on the Article 50 process. You should read it.”

You can read the full ‘Article 50 two years on’ report here.

Disclaimer:
The views expressed in this analysis post are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK in a Changing Europe initiative.

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