The UK in a Changing Europe’s Brexit Policy Panel (BPP) is a cross-disciplinary group of more than 100 academics from across the social sciences. It provides ongoing probabilistic analysis of where we have got to in the Brexit process, and to forecast where we are headed.
The latest survey shows that academic experts think no deal is more likely than not, our panel putting the chance of no deal at 59%. This has risen from 38% in March and 51% in June.
We also asked our panel of social scientists about the prospect of an imminent general election. 76% expect a general election to take place before the end of November.
Going into a general election, the Conservative Party would be favourites. 81% of academic experts expect the party to emerge with the most seats. 13% think the Labour Party would become the largest party, while 6% expect the Liberal Democrats to reconfigure British party politics and win a general election.
We also asked our panel of experts to consider the likelihood of an application for an extension of Article 50 being accepted by the European Council in October. There is a broad consensus that an extension would be granted: only 9% of Brexit Policy Panel members would not expect an extension to be granted. Some 66% of Brexit experts expect an extension to be granted, while over a quarter (28%) are not certain either way.
No deal impacts
We also surveyed Brexit experts on what they think the impact of a no deal Brexit would be. 88% think the number of jobs in the UK economy would fall as a result of a no deal Brexit (9% think employment levels would neither increase nor decrease and 3% think employment would rise). 96% expect trade with the EU would fall as a result of a no deal. Experts are divided on what the impact would be on trade with the rest of the world: 51% think trade outside the EU would fall after a no deal, 25% think it would increase and 18% think trade outside the single market would neither increase nor decrease.
A full list of members of the Brexit Policy Panel can be found here.